ExxonMobil Defies Weak Oil Prices With $500 Million Refining Boost

October 07, 2025

ExxonMobil Corp. expects to post a sharp rebound in refining profitability for the third quarter of 2025, forecasting a $500 million increase in refining earnings compared to the previous quarter — a sign that the downstream sector remains a bright spot even as oil and gas prices stagnate.

According to the company’s latest regulatory filing, refining margins are projected to add between $300 million and $700 million to quarterly earnings, driven by resilient demand during the summer driving season and improved product spreads. Benchmark Brent crude averaged $68.17 per barrel between July and September, up just 2% from Q2, while U.S. natural gas prices fell 12.5% to $3.07 per MMBtu, softening upstream returns.

ExxonMobil, the first of the oil majors to issue quarterly guidance, said movements in crude and gas prices will have only a negligible impact on earnings, with upstream results fluctuating between a loss of $100 million and a gain of $300 million. Its chemical division is also expected to post a modest $200 million earnings gain due to improved margins.

However, restructuring costs will partially offset those gains. The company will take a one-time charge of $400 million to $600 million tied to its global workforce reduction plan, which includes cutting about 2,000 jobs across Europe and Canada as part of a long-term cost-saving strategy. ExxonMobil said the consolidation of smaller offices into regional hubs is intended to streamline operations and support future profitability.

Analysts interviewed by Reuters, such as BMO Capital Markets’ Phillip Jungwirth, view the restructuring as a structural cost advantage in the long term but caution that near-term savings could be offset by rising operational expenses.

As the first major to report guidance, ExxonMobil’s results are seen as a bellwether for the wider industry, setting expectations for peers including Chevron, BP, and Shell. The refining rebound underscores how downstream strength continues to buffer Big Oil profits amid volatile crude and gas markets.

Oilprice.com