Dangote refinery rises to 610,000bpd, nears full capacity

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is operating more reliably and efficiently than ever before, with output rising to around 610,000 barrels per day this month, edging closer to its official nameplate capacity of 650,000bpd, global energy and commodity agency Argus has revealed

Speaking on a podcast titled “Can the Dangote Refinery Declare Victory Over Doubters?”, obtained by our correspondent on Thursday, Editor of the Argus European Products Report, Benedict George, said the facility had exceeded industry expectations in 2025 by running at consistently high levels

“The Dangote refinery has been running this year more reliably and strongly than ever before. We have seen crude receipts at the refinery and therefore implied run rates growing month on month. In recent months, we have been looking at above 400,000 barrels per day. As of June, we were around 440,000, 450,000 barrels per day. So we are well above half of its nameplate capacity.  And output is rising starkly as a result, as you can imagine.

“This month alone, we are looking at around 610,000 barrels per day in implied running rates. So we are not only seeing it running quite reliably, but essentially thriving by this point, I would say.

Yeah, and getting close to its nameplate capacity, as you say, which is something that I think we had last year. It was running well, but we were settling into the expectation that it doesn’t seem to be able to reach its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels a day. But it is pushing towards that level now.

“The refinery has also been talking about expanding that nameplate capacity.  We have since spoken with an executive at the refinery who has confirmed to us that they are running above capacity in some units to such a degree that they’re seeking to de-bottleneck. So it’s at this stage a plan, which is under consideration. Nevertheless, we have had some market sources suggest that such expansion could well be completed even by the end of the year,” he stated.

George noted that scepticism around the plant’s ability to reach its full design capacity has been disproved, with Dangote now even considering expansion beyond 650,000bpd.

“Last year, the assumption was that it would never reach its nameplate, but it is pushing towards that level now. We have since spoken with an executive who confirmed they are running some units above capacity and are seeking to de-bottleneck. Sources suggest such expansion could even be completed by the end of the year,” he added.

The Argus podcast highlighted how Dangote has upended Nigeria’s downstream oil market by offering aggressive pricing that often undercuts rivals, making the refinery the country’s main price-setter for petrol. According to him, Dangote’s growing production has also begun reshaping regional fuel flows.

The company now exports cargoes into neighbouring West African countries, displacing imports from Europe and pushing traders to redirect supplies to East and Southern Africa.

“Dangote has been growing its dominance this year within the Nigerian downstream market, spreading more completely across the country of Nigeria. The Dangote refinery is quickly becoming the most dominant market player within Nigeria. Its market prices for gasoline are mainly aggressively competitive to such a degree that they often undercut competitors and are price setters quite broadly within the country.

“This has forced local trading houses to essentially scramble for business. And where they can’t find it within the country, they’re having to look elsewhere within the broader West African region.  Nevertheless, there is even further difficulty because Dangote’s production capacity is such that it is now able to sell cargoes into the surrounding West African neighbours, neighbouring states. So essentially, it is a dominant force both within the country and the broader region,” George said.

He also pointed to the group’s acquisition of thousands of CNG-powered trucks as proof of its determination to dominate inland markets. “Before the refinery came online, many argued the poor road network would make it export-oriented. But with the acquisition of thousands of trucks, Dangote has put that debate to bed,” George said. “It has massively committed to serving the domestic market and is financially positioned to dominate.”

The refinery’s rise has already weakened Europe’s decades-old dominance of the West African gasoline trade. Nigerian gasoline imports from Europe halved between May and June, falling to just under 250,000 tonnes, the lowest in nearly a decade.

“We have seen Nigerian gasoline imports of European molecules half in the month between May and June. It came in at just under a quarter of a million tonnes in June.  That’s a kind of shockingly low volume there. Yeah, I think what’s even more interesting about this is that Nigeria is not only losing interest in imports on gasoline, amongst other refined products, of course, but its net position with regards to its import-export balance is quickly becoming poised to flip to a net exporter status for gasoline, which may well come to pass as soon as this month.

“Its net import position in June was the lowest on record, going back to at least 2016.  So we are seeing that Europe has lost the West African gasoline market for the time being, lost in regards to its former significance. I think what many traders in Europe are ruminating over is the possibility that the Dangote refinery might well face a major upset. It might well be taken offline for unplanned maintenance, or there may well be a turnaround which is so disruptive in its scope and duration that there may well be a kind of window of opportunity to rework that up and regain some market share,” the Argus editor said.

Despite its strong showing, Argus cautioned that Dangote’s first major turnaround or maintenance shutdown could pose a significant test for the market, given the size of its single crude distillation unit.

“If Dangote announces a CDU maintenance, it will cause a dramatic shift in West African trading patterns,” George warned. “For now, rumours of frequent breakdowns seem overblown, but the refinery’s first full shutdown will be its biggest hurdle yet. If they announce next year, year after, whenever that the CDU is going into maintenance, there will be quite a dramatic change in trading patterns around West Africa for that period. And they will have to accommodate it.”

The refinery’s dominance has been amplified by the faltering performance of state-owned facilities.  The Port Harcourt and Warri refineries, briefly revived in late 2024, have since gone offline again, leaving Dangote as the sole large-scale operator in Nigeria.

While some modular refineries are in development, Argus noted that their capacity, even at 100,000bpd each, would not meaningfully alter Nigeria’s downstream landscape before 2026.

=Punch=