OPEC+ Holds Output Steady, Approves New Capacity Framework Through 2026

November 30, 2025

OPEC and its allies agreed on Sunday to keep oil output levels unchanged through the end of 2026, reaffirming their production control framework amid mounting concerns over a looming supply glut and weakening prices.

The decision came at the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, where members endorsed a new mechanism to assess national production capacities that will set the stage for fresh quotas in 2027.

The group — which collectively pumps about half the world’s oil — said it would reaffirm the Declaration of Cooperation signed in 2016, maintaining overall production limits agreed at the 38th ministerial meeting. The statement emphasized “the critical importance of full conformity” and adherence to compensation mechanisms among members.

OPEC+ ministers also empowered the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) to meet every two months and hold emergency sessions if market conditions warrant. The committee will closely monitor supply, demand, and compliance, with support from the OPEC Secretariat.

The bloc also approved a new system to measure maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) — a key technical benchmark that will inform baseline levels for output allocations beginning in 2027. The mechanism aims to resolve long-standing tensions between members such as the UAE, which has expanded capacity and wants higher quotas, and others like Nigeria and Angola, whose output has declined.

While the group reaffirmed its commitment to stability, oil prices remain under pressure. Brent crude closed Friday near $63 per barrel, down about 15% since January, as traders brace for oversupply in 2026. The International Energy Agency projects a potential surplus exceeding 4 million barrels per day next year despite higher demand estimates, while JP Morgan sees a “persistent glut” that could drive prices even lower.

But while the OPEC+ press release signals unity, critics warn the pact may be more symbolic than effective. In a scathing opinion article this week, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas accused OPEC+ of “artistic deception,” arguing that the group’s published numbers mask the true scale of supply. He pointed out that OPEC quotas apply only to “crude,” excluding condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs) — loopholes many producers now exploit.

“The most dangerous element of the supposed coming oversupply is not the scale of production but financing rates above 6 percent,” Blas warned — noting that cheap credit once used to store crude in contango has disappeared, crippling traders and smaller refiners.

Indeed, according to Blas, some producers no longer even rely on quota loopholes — they simply exceed their limits. Independent tanker-tracking data suggests actual output, especially from the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf producers, may be significantly above the levels officially reported. Moreover, analytics firm Kpler recently noted that volumes of oil on water have surged to levels not seen since the height of the pandemic in 2020.

Looking ahead, OPEC+ will reconvene for its 41st ministerial meeting on June 7, 2026, with the Secretariat tasked to develop new cooperation programs under the 2019 Charter of Cooperation.

Oilprice.com…except images